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Aligning the Elephant and Rider

Learn how to set goals that both your Elephant and Rider can get behind.
Learn how to set goals that both your Elephant and Rider can get behind.

Murphyjitsu Template

No matter your profession or hobbies, making plans is always something you will have to do. You may as well be good at it.
No matter your profession or hobbies, making plans is always something you will have to do. You may as well be good at it.

Building a Decision Tree (Decisions 4)

We’ve now covered all the concepts required to build a decision tree. This week we will practice using all these skills in concert. In this video, I will provide a detailed example for building and using a decision tree to arrive at a good decision.

Utility in Money (Decisions 3)

You may have heard the phrase, “people have nonlinear utility in money.” Today we’re going to learn what that means.

The Certain Equivalent (Decisions 2)

The Certain Equivalent allows us to better understand complex preferences by making 100% certain outcomes feel equivalent to very different outcomes.

What Utility Is and Isn't (Decisions 1)

In the context of decision theory, utility means something like subjective value. Utility is an abstract measure by which you express relative preferences numerically. It's the anchor that consistently attaches your gut preferences to numbers, similar to how numeric probabilities anchor your feelings about likelihood.

Fragility, Robustness, and Antifragility

When analyzing events and systems, it is natural to ascribe every outcome to the specific circumstances leading up to it. There are many situations where success is random, such as investing or predicting the survivors of an artillery bombardment. No one escapes the cruel hands of probability — but we can mitigate her impact through antifragility.