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Murphyjitsu Template

No matter your profession or hobbies, making plans is always something you will have to do. You may as well be good at it.
No matter your profession or hobbies, making plans is always something you will have to do. You may as well be good at it.

Building a Decision Tree (Decisions 4)

We’ve now covered all the concepts required to build a decision tree. This week we will practice using all these skills in concert. In this video, I will provide a detailed example for building and using a decision tree to arrive at a good decision.

Utility in Money (Decisions 3)

You may have heard the phrase, “people have nonlinear utility in money.” Today we’re going to learn what that means.

The Certain Equivalent (Decisions 2)

The Certain Equivalent allows us to better understand complex preferences by making 100% certain outcomes feel equivalent to very different outcomes.

What Utility Is and Isn't (Decisions 1)

In the context of decision theory, utility means something like subjective value. Utility is an abstract measure by which you express relative preferences numerically. It's the anchor that consistently attaches your gut preferences to numbers, similar to how numeric probabilities anchor your feelings about likelihood.

Fragility, Robustness, and Antifragility

When analyzing events and systems, it is natural to ascribe every outcome to the specific circumstances leading up to it. There are many situations where success is random, such as investing or predicting the survivors of an artillery bombardment. No one escapes the cruel hands of probability — but we can mitigate her impact through antifragility.

Prediction and Calibration (Prediction 3)

Practicing with trivial questions is a great way to improve epistemic rationality. In fact, being well-calibrated is synonymous with having strong epistemic rationality. What does "well-calibrated" even mean? Read on to find out.

Probabilities and Distinctions (Prediction 2)

Practicing with trivial questions is a great way to improve epistemic rationality. In fact, being well-calibrated is synonymous with having strong epistemic rationality. What does "well-calibrated" mean? Read on to find out.

Thinking in Buckets (Prediction 1)

Thinking in buckets means quickly categorizing the possible outcomes of a complex situation into a small number of possibilities. This lets us deal with anxiety-inducing problems with many possible outcomes.

Putting the Art in Party

Partying seems like it should be one of the easiest things for people to do but time and time again, we see that it is actually a great source of anxiety. Despite that, most of us have a deep need for social connection. Individual friendships are valuable, but nothing can replace the experience of celebrating with a group of peers and community. The value of this cannot be understated.
Partying seems like it should be one of the easiest things for people to do but time and time again, we see that it is actually a great source of anxiety. Despite that, most of us have a deep need for social connection. Individual friendships are valuable, but nothing can replace the experience of celebrating with a group of peers and community. The value of this cannot be understated.

The Practitioner's Path

The Practitioner's Path is the formal structure for rank advancement within the Guild of the ROSE. Like a Martial Arts dojo, all members of the Guild are on the Path system by default.
The Practitioner's Path is the formal structure for rank advancement within the Guild of the ROSE. Like a Martial Arts dojo, all members of the Guild are on the Path system by default.

Carrying the Torch

When we started the Guild in 2020, we looked to CFAR as both an example to emulate and also differentiate ourselves from. We diagnosed many of the same problems that Anna describes in her post, though not necessarily in the same framing. We designed our organization to avoid those problems. We are grateful to CFAR for having pioneered this path.
When we started the Guild in 2020, we looked to CFAR as both an example to emulate and also differentiate ourselves from. We diagnosed many of the same problems that Anna describes in her post, though not necessarily in the same framing. We designed our organization to avoid those problems. We are grateful to CFAR for having pioneered this path.

Intro to Street Epistemology

Street Epistemology is a technique for reframing debates as a collaborative search for truth. Instead of arguing about the ideas, Street Epistemologists ask about methods.
Street Epistemology is a technique for reframing debates as a collaborative search for truth. Instead of arguing about the ideas, Street Epistemologists ask about methods.

The Wealth Mindset

Money is this mysterious and elusive force that governs most people’s lives. It doesn’t have to, though. Here’s a glimpse into the fake framework that those evil, evil capitalists use to practice the super secret art of moneybending.
Money is this mysterious and elusive force that governs most people’s lives. It doesn’t have to, though. Here’s a glimpse into the fake framework that those evil, evil capitalists use to practice the super secret art of moneybending.

The Character Sheet: Version 3

The Character Sheet is a framework for self-improvement. It's inspired by tabletop RPGs, CFAR's Bug List exercise, and alkjash's Hammertime.

Disasters and Emergencies

Learn the difference between emergencies and disasters, and how to prepare for both.
Learn the difference between emergencies and disasters, and how to prepare for both.

Finding Your Voice

Most people hate recordings of their own speech. "Oh God, do I really sound like that?" Many people think that their voice is "bad", which should be surprising because almost nobody has an objectively bad voice. But many people use their voices unskillfully, which can be improved.
Most people hate to hear recordings of their own speech. "Oh God, do I really sound like that?" Many people think that their voice is "bad", which should be surprising because almost nobody has an objectively bad voice. But many people use their voices unskillfully, which can be improved.

The History and Practice of Guild Workshops

One of the original, primary goals of the Guild was to create a "rationality dojo" that was both accessible and effective. Since the Guild's inception, what this looks like in practice has evolved rapidly.
One of the original, primary goals of the Guild was to create a "rationality dojo" that was both accessible and effective. Since the Guild's inception, what this looks like in practice has evolved rapidly.

Six Months of ROSE

Six months ago, we launched the Guild Beta. Our goal was -- and is -- to produce people who are impressive in everyday life. This article is a look back on the past six months of the Guild Beta and a look forward at what we want to do with the next six months.
A look back on the past six months of the Guild Beta and a look forward at what we want to do with the next six months.

Introducing Mnosis

What is Mnosis? In a nutshell -- a magic deck of flashcards. Think of it as Anki for predefined subjects. Instead of manually creating a deck of cards by hand, Mnosis comes preloaded with all the cards needed to train your skills in a particular area.
What is Mnosis? In a nutshell -- a magic deck of flashcards.

Retrospective: Practical Social Networking

Practical Social Networking was the third Guild of the ROSE course. Taught by Councilor David Youssef, the course was an introduction to the art of growing and nurturing a healthy social web.
Practical Social Networking was the third Guild of the ROSE course.

Retrospective: Context and Communication

Context and Communication was the third Guild of the Rose course. The course served as an introduction to communication and spanned the four weeks from 12/01/2021 to 01/01/2022. It followed our established flipped-classroom model and was taught by Olivia, one of our Guild members. Topics addressed included...
A look back on the third Guild Beta course, Context and Communication.

Retrospective: Quantified Self Assessment

Quantified Self Assessment was the second Guild of the Rose course. Taught by Consul Alex Hedtke, the course was an evolution of the Alpha's Character Sheet and helped users discover bugs in their life. Topics addressed included...
Retrospective on the second Guild Beta course, Quantified Self Assessment.

Practitioner: Novice

The Triad gave Taman a week to pay off his crushing debt. Now the Guild of the Rose claims they can help, but how can Taman trust them when he doesn't even know what they want?
An aspirational short story about what the Guild of the Rose could someday become.

Retrospective: Practical Decision-Making

Practical Decision-Making was the first course of the Guild of the Rose Beta. The course was an introduction to conscious decision making and spanned five weeks from 09/01/2021 to 10/06/2021. It followed our standard flipped-classroom model and was taught by Matt Freeman, Guild Council member. Topics addressed included...
Retrospective on the first Guild Beta course, Practical Decision-Making.